US ELECTIONS: UKRAINE HAVE YOUR SAY!

Maria Ivanova, Academy of Direct Democracy, 

Commentary from Maria Ivanova, Correspondent to CitizenPowerMagazine.net

So is it McCain, or Obama, who is more likely to promote Ukrainian interests along with the American???

        Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests.
                                   Lord Palmerston

The outcome of the upcoming US elections (November 4, 2008) is going to influence the rest of the globe. So what America are we going to get: harsh and strict or loyal and flexible?

John McCain, a Republican, is described as a straightforward politician who sees the rest of the world coloured in black and white. Luckily for us, Ukraine is coloured white on senator’s McCain world map.

His Democratic opponent, Barack Obama is known to be more loyal, is almost twice as young, and declares his intention to engage the world in a no-end negotiation about peace, democracy, and welfare.

While McCain is explicit about his intention to not give in Ukraine to Russia, Obama is unwilling to push Ukraine against the vexatious choice between Russia and the West.

Some say American elections aren’t going to influence Ukraine all that much. British politician Richard Balfe, member of the European Parliament (1979 – 2004), said in his public lecture at one of the Kyiv universities: “I don’t think it honestly will make difference who wins in the United States”. Professor of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, Ukrainian political scientist Dr. Valentyn Yakushyk also sees little difference for Ukraine in the victory of any of the two leaders of the American presidential campaign: “I don’t see how the upcoming American presidential elections could significantly influence Ukraine: both leading candidates perceive Ukraine as a friendly country which plays an important role in the US geostrategic interests”.

A political statement rather than an analytic viewpoint we’ve received from the Ambassador of the United States of America, William Taylor: “Whoever wins our Presidential elections in November, American support for Ukraine will be unwavering; both parties agree on the expansion of freedom and support for Ukraine as a foreign policy priority. The United States looks forward to continuing and deepening our strategic partnership with Ukraine and we will pursue this with any democratic, legal and constitutional coalition.”

But perhaps we should dig a little deeper. Dr. Andreas Umland, editor of the book series “Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society”, offered us an alternative viewpoint: “I am not sure that further demonstrative support for NATO membership of Ukraine will be good for the country. A pushy approach towards inclusion of Ukraine in NATO is counter-productive as majority of Ukrainians are against membership. Less unilateral and anti-Russian policies under Obama would find more acceptance in Ukraine, and could make NATO membership more attractive to her population.”

Dr. Olexiy Haran, Professor of Comparative Politics, academic director of School for Policy Analysis gives his explanation of political perspective on the international arena concerning the issue: “Suppose McCain will provide solid support for Ukrainian integration to NATO. The question is whether it should cause the frontlash of the European partners who could advocate less definite position. Barack Obama, still supporting Ukrainian Euro-Atlantic integration, is likely to seek to elaborate common position with the European countries in the first place.”

We now understand that even if both Obama and McCain strongly support Ukrainian membership in NATO, the former may trade this membership for European support – and the EU being dependent on Russian resources might turn out to be unwilling to confront Russia.

Still, the cliché image of Barack Obama as a flexible politician and John McCain as a conservative might turn to be not that precise. Dr. Mykhailo Kirsenko, Professor of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy suggests being less definite in conclusions:

“We could call Obama a dove if compared to McCain-the hawk but we should be careful in such judgments. About a month ago Barack Obama gave a speech in Berlin – I don’t know more anti-Russian speech.”

Ukrainian relations with Russia seem to be difficult and the American position is important in their development. For example, in case Russia forces uncomfortable gas tariffs on Ukraine it is John McCain who is more likely to hear our call for support and justice. Barack Obama may turn to be unwilling to act strictly against Russia – to decrease tension and support European allies. John McCain is known to perceive Russia less romantically and disbelieves in Russian ability to negotiate on the basis of peace and democratic values rather than economic and military potential of negotiating parties. But if Russia considers a Georgian scenario against the Crimea situation, things turn the other way round: Obama as far more peaceful, willing to negotiate, and supporting Ukrainian Euro-Atlantic integration would be a soothing figure in such a conflict. McCain is likely to start war – the moment Russian Black Sea Fleet makes any uneven move we could expect American troops on the ground any minute. But John McCain supports Ukrainian ambition to built pipelines bypassing the territory of Russia.

To proceed, we know the wide-spread opinion that Democrats provide cheap oil, and Barack Obama is known for his eagerness to settle war in Iraq, negotiate with Iran and seek to lower oil prices.

We should also remember about non-political questions. Obama promises in his program to do more to fight the global HIV/AIDS pandemic and tuberculosis – important issues for Ukraine being now overwhelmed by the spread of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. Barack Obama intends to double US annual investments in foreign assistance to $50 billion by 2012, some of that money could be provided for Ukraine.

In conclusion we’d like to address a common opinion that Barack Obama is less experienced than John McCain and so Obama is likely to be absorbed by international chaos and wouldn’t pay any attention to Ukraine. John McCain has once said: “I still say there’s only one thing worse than military action against Iran and that is a nuclear-armed Iran,” which apparently means that Republican candidate is likely to engage in a big foreign policy game and perceive Ukraine as no more than a subordinate with which “Russia automatically becomes an empire”.

So both ways Ukraine will gain something but at the same time is bound to sacrifice some of her interests.